Do not sell the top - 不要试图卖在高点
中文码字太累,今天用英文写了。
Never sell the top!
Why not?
Because you never know how high it can go.
Today's YM opened gap-up almost 100 points and kept going up, didn't give any chance to buy at retracement until very late in the morning. At 11:06am the CCI showed a very decent TONY setup. At that time, the YM has already gone another 70 ticks since opening. We however, as disciplined traders, should never afraid of buying in the high, as long as we believe it will continue going higher.
Long YM @ 8464, stop loss @ 8455, profit target @8505. Reward:risk is 4:1 (even after commission).
The market only gave 1 or 2 ticks draw down and very quickly we gained about 20 ticks profit, it gave us confidence that the trade would keep going our way, and we moved the stop to break even plus 1 at 8465 so this trade became completely risk free. It didn't hesitate any much and quickly enough it almost touched the target of 8405, almost, but didn't. After shooting up to swing high of 8404 it retraced.
It was frustrating, just 1 tick away from my target and then I had to give back almost half of profit.
Now we have to decide, if we exit at this moment to capitalize the left-over of profit, which was still about 20 ticks, or we stay in the trade, risk losing all profit but hoping a much bigger gain.
We need to do some anylysis over here, we can not just guess.
First, the market was gapped up in the opening, and continued the up trend very firmly, so we can assure that the market is in a strong up trend and the retracement is supposed to be mild. From the Fibonacci retracement lines we can see that market is only at the 23.6% pull back and it's still running way above 21 moving average, and all these make us believe that the market is still very strong and it's unlikely that it would come back to take out our break even stop.
Second, these few down bars from the swing high level were quite gentle, there was no consecutive and large red bars which could hint that the trend my suddenly reverse. Instead, it's strongly suggesting that maket is in a breathe mode only after a rally and it's accumulating more enegy to shoot up again.
So we take the chance, by staying at the break even stop and not urging to harvest the small profit. We risk losing the unrealized profit but we will never allow it turning into a loss...the stop we put on 8465 is unbreakable. We take the current risk, but we wait for a much bigger future.
For sure, market is dynamic and fast pace, it may revese its direction in any seconds and taking out our stop. It's possible, so for this single trade, we may make money, or may make no money, but this should not prevent us from obeying our rules, becuase we know eventually, for long run, for the trades we're going to take day after day, year after year, we win.
Market never touched our stop but kept going up. It approached my target for other 2 times but was unale to take it. Meanwhile, it never reversed either. I trailed my stop to 1 ticke below 'a' and 'b' respectively to protect the profit. After 13:30pm, market was moving up again and at that time, I decided to remove the target order but only with the stop order in place, becuase I was convinced that the market will be moving up much higher. I usually don't do that, but on that day the analysis made me opt to this decision. Keeping only stop order but without a traget would allow pre-determined, limited loss, with unlimited profit potential.
Remember, we remove profit target order, never a stop loss order !!!
We were eventually stopped out at 8547, comparing to the initial target at 8505, we doubled the profit, only taking very small risk. It doesn't happen every day, but once it happens, it becomes very rewarding. That's the whole point of trading.
Good luck in your trading !
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非常感谢!期待更多好文!
我觉得这个难度更高,更紧张!
高!
厉害